Evaluation of earthquake potential along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea using comparisons of GPS strain and seismotectonic parameters

Abstract

Seismotectonic parameters including the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and multifractal dimensions D-2 and D-15 of seismicity patterns (both spatial and temporal) were compared to GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strains measured in the Marmara Sea re-ion of western Turkey along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Comparisons of seismotectonic parameters and GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strain along the NAFZ in the vicinity of the 1999 M7.4 Izmir earthquake reveal a positive correlation (r=0.5, p=0.05) between average dilatation and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Significant negative correlation (r=-0.56, p=0.03 and r=-0.56, p=0.02) was also observed between the spatial fractal dimension D-2 and GPS-derived maximum geodetic and shear strain. This relationship suggests that, as maximum geodetic and shear strains increase, seismicity becomes increasingly clustered.