Finance as a friend, enemy and stranger in the US Economy, 1952-2019

Abstract

This article aimed to illustrate that the role of the finance sector in an economic system can be explained more systemically and systematically in the context of its interaction with macroeconomic governance, based on the case of the USA from 1952Q1 to 2019Q2. The article introduced two modes of economic governance based on negative and positive institutional complementarities, developed its hypotheses built on a structural analysis of the long-run relationship between the finance sector and macroeconomic governance within the frame of these two modes, and quantitatively tested the hypotheses using time-series cointegration analysis. The article concluded that the finance sector enhanced and impaired the US economic performance, respectively, in the periods 1952Q1-1973Q4 and 1980Q1-2007Q4, and that its long-run relationship with the US economic performance disappeared in the period 2008Q1-2019Q2.