Tsunami Hazard Assessment and Potential Risk Mitigation Requirement for Sea of Marmara Coastline

Abstract

The westward movement of the seismic energy along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) during the 20th century has increased the probability that the next activity will be offshore in the Sea of Marmara. According to historical records 35 tsunami events have impacted the Sea of Marmara coasts (Altınok, et al., 2011). Offshore seismic sources may trigger these tsunamis directly or through coseismic underwater failure. The 1999 İzmit Bay tsunami led to more comprehensive analyses of these events which are generally caused by underwater failures close to the target coastline. Waves so generated can arrive at nearby coastlines in minutes, causing extensive damage and loss of life. Here this paper proposes, on the basis of tsunami models in the Sea of Marmara and methodology used internationally, tsunami inundation maps for the areas along the Sea of Marmara coasts in the light of both remote sensing and DTMs data. This investigation highlights the information regarding the most vulnerable tsunamigenic areas. Such maps for selected areas help to understand the possible effects on those regions and should only be used for evacuation planning and reducing possible hazard