Revealing the freight market risk in Istfix shipping area

Abstract

This study analyses the market risk of the freight rates of Istfix shipping area, where small coaster size of dry/general cargo mini bulkers ranging from 2,000 dwt to 12,000 dwt operate on Black Sea-Mediterranean-Continent routes. Having used VaR and expected shortfall as the market risk measures, we have found that the market risk is higher on longer routes in this region. However, the results do not suggest a significant relationship between the market risk of freight rates and that of coaster tonnages. Overall, the market risk in Istfix shipping area has been found to be much lower than in the international Baltic handysize index (BHSI), a proxy international index of relatively small sized vessels. The findings provide a better understanding of Istfix shipping area compared to BHSI for tramp market participants and speculators in freight derivatives markets for hedging and speculative purposes in their investment strategies and financial decision making processes.