The analysis of 2004 flood on Kozdere Stream in Istanbul

Abstract

The climatic and physiographical factors of the Kozdere Creek Watershed are examined to find out the causes of the flood of August 11, 2004. Actual land use has been obtained from forest management stand plans and classified satellite images. The multispectral digital satellite data set belonging to years 1992, 1993, and 2005 was used to determine the status of land use. Physiographic factors, including the slope and the aspect, have been identified from digitized ortho-photo maps in the GIS environment. Since flow records of Kozdere are not available, flow values corresponding to different return periods were obtained using regression analysis of neighboring streams. No noticeable alteration of the land use occurred between 1992 and 2005. Since the physical factors are the same as they were during the 1985 rain, the flood after the 2004 rainfall cannot be due to the physiographical factors of the upper watershed. The existing channel in the neighborhood is not enough to convey even the 10-year return period flow. Thus, the 2004 flow did not fit into this cross-section and flooded houses on the alluvial fan. The cross-section of the Kozdere Creek passing through the PTT neighborhood should be increased, and the surface roughness should be decreased by covering the channel with concrete in order to prevent floods.