Demand-pull and cost-push effects on labor income in Turkey, 1973-90

Abstract

In this paper we attempt to assess the changes in the Turkish production structure, and labor income in particular, between the 1970s and the 1990s. During this period a shift has taken place from an inward-looking policy towards an outward-oriented one. For our analysis we use two partially closed (or extended) input-output models. The demand-driven model is traditional for this type of analysis and examines the effects of a demand pull (for example, an increase in exports). For an open economy, however, it is not only important to investigate the effects of a demand pull, but also to examine how a cost push (for example, an increase in import prices) affects total gross output, value added, or labor income, for example. To study the effects of a cost push we introduce the partially closed supply-driven input-output model. Instead of analyzing the effects of a specific exogenous demand pull or cost push, we focus on various types of multiplier.