Economic impact assessment of alternative European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) options with the application of the GMR-Turkey model

Abstract

This paper applies the GMR-Turkey policy impact model to estimate the likely regional effects of a selected set of policies suggested in the European Neighborhood Policy literature. We grouped the policy suggestions into two alternative sets of measures, which became the bases of two alternative scenarios of regional economic development, the Conservative scenario and the Technology-and innovation-based development scenario. Our results suggest that a persistent and systematic long-term regional technology development-based economic policy which applies measures such as investment, education and R&D support, promotion of better connectedness to EU research networks and increased physical accessibility to developed markets could in the longer run result in higher levels of regional and national production together with decreasing interregional differences than a scenario supporting the expansion of traditional industries in the region.